Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.631899 2.145492 2.835714 3.853955 5.358142e+00 7.566320 1.118886e+01
2024-12-15 1.182280 1.775532 2.723593 4.438527 7.682330e+00 14.086374 2.938997e+01
2024-12-22 0.886685 1.485048 2.592788 5.005101 1.083131e+01 26.755448 8.820942e+01
2024-12-29 0.695756 1.283857 2.530018 5.784544 1.598346e+01 57.179938 3.786471e+02
2025-01-05 0.551461 1.106995 2.435591 6.561721 2.352238e+01 133.056254 2.825357e+03
2025-01-12 0.414719 0.885406 2.118239 6.510648 2.932588e+01 265.725422 3.624028e+04
2025-01-19 0.311390 0.697430 1.784252 6.123492 3.389638e+01 505.354991 4.609138e+06
2025-01-26 0.253730 0.599262 1.654747 6.474612 4.673787e+01 1520.018719 NaN
2025-02-02 0.220207 0.551270 1.659576 7.589925 7.771684e+01 10271.267639 NaN
2025-02-09 0.196599 0.521677 1.717115 9.313497 1.470093e+02 426562.307162 NaN
2025-02-16 0.169264 0.468920 1.652074 10.275382 2.406578e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.141166 0.402292 1.483389 10.149117 3.225166e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.115175 0.335722 1.284506 9.516342 3.990539e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.101418 0.307107 1.252042 10.688981 7.815835e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.089311 0.279714 1.207660 11.787209 1.598494e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.080086 0.259702 1.191153 13.476298 4.176297e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.071821 0.240210 1.163807 15.145864 1.265690e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.061892 0.210025 1.044470 14.562416 2.213376e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.052873 0.180823 0.912025 13.206526 2.909227e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.047417 0.165398 0.864865 13.825109 9.777365e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.044220 0.158879 0.877691 16.407347 2.283734e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.041930 0.155684 0.915283 20.623810 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.038629 0.146431 0.895989 22.892140 NaN NaN NaN